What I’m Watching If Global Tensions Escalate
The S&P finished the week down 1.12%, largely on news that Iran fired missiles into Tel Aviv. While nobody knows what happens next, there’s potential for escalation—and that means market volatility.
If things do heat up over the weekend, there are a few sectors and stocks I’ll be keeping an eye on Monday:
Defense contractors: Lockheed Martin, NOC, General Dynamics—all were already ticking up.
Energy: ExxonMobil, Chevron and Schlumberger have seen steady gains with the rising tension.
Gold & miners: GLD hit a high today. Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan are worth watching too.
Silver miners: Haven’t popped like gold, but still on the radar.
Shipping & tankers: Frontline, Scorpio, ZIM—some movement already here.
Cybersecurity: CRWD, PANW, Cloudflare—quiet for now, but could see a bump with any cyber threats.
Ag & food supply: ADM, Bunge, NTR, Mosaic. If the conflict expands and disrupts supply chains, these could be impacted.
Cyclicals, travel, airlines: American Airlines, Carnival. These might take a hit. Royal Caribbean is already pulling back.
Emerging markets & tech: Caution on EM near the region. On the tech side, Palantir and Microsoft could benefit due to their government ties.
Ideally, we come back Monday to calmer headlines. But just in case, these are some ideas to help you think through positioning.
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