The Right Data to Watch

Jobs Report Misses, Inflation Stalls, and Rate Cuts Loom: What's Next?

Wow, what a week!

The S&P 500 dropped 1.64% Friday, capping one of the weakest weeks in recent memory. Why? It started with a disappointing jobs report—fewer jobs added than expected, a higher unemployment rate, and to top it off, past job numbers were revised lower. Ouch.

The reaction was swift, and it raised questions. Trump even called for the firing of the head of the Department of Labor, saying the data is flawed. Sounds wild—but here’s the thing: Budget cuts have reduced the number of people collecting economic data. That means more reliance on estimates and potentially less accurate reports.

Digging into the details, most job growth came from health care—a sector that tends to rise naturally as the population ages. Meanwhile, inflation isn’t falling like it used to. We may be past the phase of “immaculate disinflation” and heading into more stubborn territory.

So what’s next?

Well, with the economy cooling more than expected and inflation holding firm, the chances of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting (according to CME futures) are up to 89.8%. Some even think it could happen sooner.

That could bring some relief to areas like housing, where affordability has been a serious challenge—especially for younger buyers. But the big question is: Would a rate cut actually help bring inflation down? Or would it just give the economy a boost?

#MarketTrends #InterestRates #JobsReport #EconomicData

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